2024 Preview: Aaron Bummer
Shohei Ohtani is 0-for-16 versus Bummer. Might come into play later.
LHP, Age-29 season
$5.5 million salary for 2024
$7.25 million club option ($1.25 million buyout) for 2025, $7.5 million club option ($1 million buyout) for 2026
Other Previews: Ian Anderson | Ben Bowden
It was one of the offseason's weirdest deals, especially without context. The Braves, who already had A.J. Minter, Dylan Lee, and the returning Tyler Matzek from the left side, sent a group of players to the Chicago White Sox for Bummer in mid-November. Now, it wasn't like Alex Anthopoulos was trading several valuable pieces to grab Bummer because the lefty was a must-get. Of the five players the Braves sent in the deal, two were staring down a possible non-tender (Michael Soroka and Nicky Lopez) and two more were occupying spots on the 40-man roster (Jared Shuster and Braden Shewmake) that the Braves had interest in using for upgrades.
It was essentially trying to sell that old sofa rather than drop it off at the dump for nothing.
Bummer's the anything's better than nothing part of the equation. But Bummer could be a shrewd pickup that pays off in a big way for the Braves in 2024 and maybe even beyond. A 19th-round selection out of Nebraska back in 2014, Bummer has been in the majors for seven years now. Mixed in those seven years are two awesome seasons surrounding the COVID year and some okay production outside of that. Some of that has been injury-related. He struggled in both 2020 and 2022 to stay healthy.
But last year, Bummer was pretty healthy and the return to form to the 2021 version never happened. Now, to be fair, Bummer pitched better than his 6.79 ERA indicated. His sweeper was still electric, his barrel% was in the 99th percentile, and his whiff rate remained very high. But late-season struggles - especially with control - led to some long innings. Of course, playing for a bad White Sox team couldn't have helped.
That last caveat is especially important. While Bummer doesn't get a ton of weak contact (his hard-hit rates have never been good), Bummer deals with that by inducing a lot of groundballs. In fact, his groundball rate is 22% higher than the league average and, when he's really humming, the rate soars above 70%. That's a testament to how hard it can be to square up his sinker/sweeper combo when he's throwing quality strikes in good pitching counts.
That's what Anthopoulos is looking at. A guy who, in 2021, was in the 80th percentile or better in breaking ball run value, xERA, xBA, fastball velocity, Whiff%, K%, Barrel%, and GB%. In 2023, that was reduced to just Whiff%, K%, Barrel%, and GB%. Though, to be fair, he wasn't far off from the 80th percentile in the other categories except for fastball velocity. He's dropped to the 56th percentile partly due to increased velocity in the game and losing a tick in velocity from 95.4 mph in 2021 to 94.3 mph last year.
Bummer might benefit from also not needing to be the guy for the Braves bullpen who sets up games. Minter will be the top lefty. While Matzek may need a rehab stint to open the year, Bummer might even be the third southpaw on the depth chart as we head into the summer. Considering his high-end potential to post huge numbers, that's pretty incredible for the Braves.
Not for nothing, but Bummer has also been historically cruel to left-handed hitters. Just ask Shohei Ohtani, who is 0-for-16 against Bummer. Or Miami's batting champ, Luis Arraez, who has just one hit in 9 at-bats. New National Joey Gallo has not reached base in six plate appearances vs. Bummer while our old friend Nicky Lopez is just glad he went to the AL in this deal because he was hitless in the eight times he faced Bummer.
It'll be interesting to see what Bummer the Braves get in 2024. He could pitch his way into his option being picked up for 2025, especially if the Braves decide Minter will be too costly to bring back. If he's really good in 2024 - like he's shown the capability of being - guys like Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and, yes, Ohtani might spend next winter wishing the Braves had simply taken out the trash rather than grab something valuable for it.
Walk-Off Walk 2024 fWAR prediction
1.2 fWAR
Other Previews: Ian Anderson | Ben Bowden