RHP, Age-26 season
$770,000 (estimate)
Pre-arbitration, possible arbitration after 2024
It hasn't been the best ride since that night in Atlanta when Anderson no-hit the Astros over five innings to help the Braves take a 2-1 lead in the 2021 World Series. Injuries, bad luck, and just weaker pitching led to a 5.00 ERA over 22 starts in 2022 before his season ended in mid-August after a final demotion to Gwinnett.
Last year, he came to camp looking for a bounceback campaign but was demoted late in spring training (along with eventual All-Star Bryce Elder). Before that, he looked rough during spring games, giving up five dingers in just eight recorded innings. But the season was only going to get worse for Anderson as one ugly start into his Triple-A campaign, his 2023 season would come to a quick end. Tommy John surgery was next.
It's worth noting that it wasn't until he hit rock bottom that Anderson finally expressed to the Braves that his elbow was hurting.
We just passed ten months since that surgery. While everyone's Tommy John rehab story is different, the rehab process typically takes anywhere between twelve and eighteen months to come back. The Braves, and probably most teams if we’re being honest, are very conservative with timelines following Tommy John as well. All of that said, it seems quite possible that we'll see Anderson begin a rehab assignment at some point in 2024. Whether we see him pitching for the Atlanta Braves is another question that probably has less than a 50% likelihood at this point.
Let's first take into account that just being able to physically pitch again is just one step in the rehab process. The next, and this sometimes can take another year, is to be able to flash the same level of command. Furthermore, we can't be 100% sure when Anderson first started to be hampered by a balky elbow. Was it in 2022 when his numbers tanked? Or just in 2023? Which version of Anderson can we expect to eventually return? The 2020 version with a xERA of 2.44 over 32.1 innings or the 2021 version that outpitched his 4.27 xERA?
Maybe the answer is somewhere in the middle. Whatever the case, it seems questionable if we'll see Anderson at his best at any point in 2024. Not for nothing, but a team with World Series aspirations isn’t going to count too much on Anderson at this point. Any positive he gives the team this year will be a bonus at best. Instead, Anderson and the Braves are likely looking at 2025. And it might be a make-or-break spring if Anderson makes it that far depending on whether or not his option to the minors counts for last year (sources say that it does) and whether he uses his last one this year.
Of course, a solid rehab this summer could give the Braves some level of confidence that the guy who baffled Astros hitters three years ago might just be on his way back.
Walk-Off Walk's 2024 fWAR prediction
0.2 fWAR