How Much Longer Can Kenley Kill the Braves?

It was the highest of highs Sunday afternoon in Seattle as the Atlanta Braves not only erased a four-run deficit, but also took the lead on a very good Mariners' team.

And then the Braves came down from their high as Kenley Jansen once again couldn't seal the deal. Julio Rodriguez tagged him for a homer to tie it. A batter later, it was Eugenio Suarez for the walk-off.

This should have been a statement victory. In a competitive race with the Mets, the Braves go on the road and take a series after entering the ninth of the rubber game down by four runs. Michael Harris II hits his second homer of the game, a three-run bomb with two outs and two strikes on him in an at-bat where the umpire was essentially calling anything in a five-mile vicinity of the strike zone a strike. Then Eddie Rosario, pinch-hitting for the Brave whose name we don't talk about, comes off the bench with a 1-2 count and picks up a clutch hit like it was the 2021 NLCS and he was facing Kenley Jansen. Finally, Robbie Grossman, the unheralded deadline pick-up from the Tigers, slams a two-run homer off the impressive Paul Sewald.

It was destiny. The Braves should have practically floated to the plane as their west coast road trip continues tonight in San Francisco.

Instead, they are 1.5 games back, still under .500 against teams that are actually above .500.

Is it the end of the world? No. Can the Braves still re-take the division lead? Not only can they, I would argue that they should. But was this a hard loss to take? It absolutely was. Of course, so was Game 5 of the 2021 World Series when the Braves built a 5-0 lead on the Astros in the first inning only to lose 9-5. The Braves shook that off and shutout the favored Astros in Houston two nights later to win the World Series.

But that brings only a little solace as the current Braves watch their closer again implode. Jansen, who has done this before (i.e. give up homers in bunches), blew his seventh save of the season. It's one away from his career-high. He's become a liability in tight games where one run leads are everything because Jansen too often surrenders the most efficient way of scoring a run - the jogging around all four bases type. Hitters had a .241 wOBA against Jansen in the first half. They have a .366 since the All-Star Game.

Worse - he has no idea where the ball is going. 35.6% of his pitches since the Midsummer Classic have been called a ball. That's a 5% increase. In more basic numbers, his walk-rate has nearly tripled from 5.7% to 14.1%.

His manager, Brian Snitker, chooses to search for the positives. When a reporter mentioned that Jansen's struggles continued, which seems like an almost-understatement, Snitker seemed to suggest that the comment was ridiculous. "In his last five outings, he has three saves," Snitker countered. Worth mentioning that there isn't a closer in the business who keeps his job for very long with a 60% save rate.

It's easy to understand why Snitker comes to Jansen's defense. Even ignoring Jansen's 383 career saves, including an NL-leading 33 this season, Snitker is first-and-foremost a player's manager. He hates moving away from any of his players, especially veterans who he can argue are still doing their job even if underneath the good numbers are many bad ones. Jansen was brought in to do a job and, by God, for the most part, he has done it in Snitker's eyes.

And Snitker doesn't have to look far for validation to this approach. Just last year, Will Smith blew six saves and turned many hairs gray with his ninth-inning theatrics. Yet, Snitker stayed true to Smith and the Braves manager was awarded with a dominant postseason from the lefty.

Maybe Jansen's 2022 could follow Smith's 2021?

The Braves better hope so because it doesn't look like Snitker is going to waiver anytime soon. That is despite having Raisel Iglesias, the likely 2023-and-beyond closer who has been practically unhittable since he was acquired, and A.J. Minter. The latter has had a few hiccups along the way, but has been amazing overall and nailed down all five save opportunities when Jansen missed time earlier this year.

Of course, even Snitker's patience might grow thin the more Jansen struggles to perform. After all, the Braves have a division to win and the Mets, as much as their history says otherwise, don't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. But how much damage will Jansen have to do to get removed first?

It's a catch-22 in a way. At most, Jansen is the fourth-best Braves reliever behind Iglesias, Minter, and Collin McHugh. In the postseason, the Braves might be better off going to one of those arms with the lead than they would be Jansen. If he struggles more, the Braves might have to do it now and could be better for it in the postseason. Or Jansen could put it together now and then blow it again in the postseason?

Or, hell, maybe Snitker will do a voodoo spell and turn Jansen into 2021 Will Smith?

We can definitely hope so. Kenley Jansen was brought to Atlanta for one reason and one reason only - to close games without the drama. But like TNT, Jansen knows drama and it’s getting a bit tiresome at this point.