The Braves evened up their best-of-five National League Division Series with the Phillies on Wednesday by the score of 3-0. It was a big win for the Braves, who looked listless in the opener aside from a furious comeback that finished a run short. After an off day today, the series shifts to Philadelphia for the next two games.
Hopefully, in those two games, William Contreras will be back in the lineup.
After starting Game 1 as the designated hitter and going 1-for-4 with a double, a walk, and a run scored, Contreras was on the bench for the second game as Marcell Ozuna started. Ozuna would go 0-for-3 with a K and a long flyout. And no, I'm not advocating for Contreras based on the first two games. It's because Contreras has earned his shot as a regular for a great team.
We can start with the last two seasons of work. It's valid to say that Contreras broke out this year, but it's worth mentioning that even when he often looked overmatched in 2021, Contreras was starting to show signs of what was to come. Sure, he hit only .215, but he paired that with a 10.3% walk-rate (almost identical to 2022) and a .184 isolated slugging. His Barrel rate was 10.9% when the major league average is 6.7%. His biggest problem was that he was so vulnerable to offspeed pitches (.188 wOBA) which led pitchers to entice him to put the ball in play off those or breaking pitches. To be fair, this was a very small sample size.
This season, Contreras destroys offspeed pitches. He still struggles against breaking balls, but with the rate he hammers fastballs (.448 wOBA) and offspeed (.401), you can live with that. Pitchers might want to get Contreras out on the breaking stuff, but they can't only throw that. He also increased his Barrel% to 13.4% and ranks among the Top 10% of baseball in expected SLG.
Overall, though, Contreras has hit .258/.337/.471 over his last 561 plate appearances spanning 149 games. That's a two-year sample worth listening to.
Speaking of a two-year sample worth listening to, Marcell Ozuna has hit .222/.278/.397 since the beginning of 2021. That's 715 PA over 172 games. Sure, there's 25 doubles and 30 homers in those numbers, but there is also a lot of outs. An unacceptable amount of them. To put that on-base percentage in context, over the last two seasons, 261 players have at least 600 PA. Ozuna has the 16th-worst OBP in baseball. When you're hitting profile is closer to Yadier Molina than either of the catchers on your team, that's a problem.
But you say, "okay, okay, but Ozuna's shown signs of late." And sure, if you set a pair of arbitrary points - such as August 13 to October 5 - Ozuna hit .318/.358/.556. But if you, for instance, don't cherry-pick numbers to look for ones to justify your argument and just say, "how has X performed since the beginning of August," you'd see that Contreras has hit .299/.364/.470 since the beginning of the eighth month while Ozuna hit .250/.276/.470.
Funny thing - even if you play the cherry-pick game to make Ozuna look better, Contreras has still hit .308/.374/.462 in the same time frame.
I have no problem if you're suggesting that Ozuna should play over Eddie Rosario. The only difference between the two in the field is that Rosario has a functioning throwing shoulder. Nevertheless, if you're comfortable taking the hit there, go ahead and make the move. You could also go with Robbie Grossman for defense and hope he gets hot. You could even play the tendency game. Ozuna hits fastballs - it's about all he hits. Grossman tends to hit breaking/offspeed stuff better than Ozuna. In a series against Phillies starters who live off their fastball (including rumored Game 4 starter, Bailey Falter), maybe Ozuna in left for the first six or seven innings makes sense.
But taking out Contreras is senseless. Consider that it's not just an Ozuna vs. Contreras decision, but also a Contreras vs. Rosario or Grossman one. While we will always appreciate what Rosario did in 2021, he hasn't shown the ability to tap into that Super Rosario alter-ego in 2022. And Grossman, well, he's Grossman. To be clear - you're choosing to bench a guy with a .370 wOBA when you sit Contreras. You know who else had a .370 wOBA in 2022? SHOHEI FRIGGIN OHTANI. In fact, only 14 players received at least 350 PA in 2022 and finished with a wOBA better than Contreras.
Brian Snitker has earned our trust and patience, but no manager gets a pass for sending one of his best hitters in the bench in favor of one of his worst. This isn't a complicated decision by any means. It's the playoffs - play your best.
And yes, I know the Braves won the game Contreras sat while losing the game that he played in. And I'm well-aware of the soul-killing double play he hit into in Game One. I'd point out that he should have been on first base because he had earned a walk, but that doesn't change the outcome.
Further, I'm sure my bias is present some here. I've been a Contreras fanboy since seeing him play for the Danville Braves in 2017. On the flip side, whether you think he was a victim of bad circumstances or a criminal skating around the law, Ozuna has been a concern off-the-field even more so than he's been a failure on it since re-signing with the Braves. Frankly, if it were up to me, he wouldn't be on the team anymore, but that's not my decision obviously. He is a Brave - and he'll tell you so. If you want to play him, okay. On the numbers alone, there lacks a compelling argument against him playing.
Unless he's playing in favor of Contreras.
Because I just wrote a lot of words about that compelling argument.