Recapping the Braves Drafts: 2021
Though the draft has already provided trade capital, there is still some intriguing talents left
Last week, I looked at the most recent amateur draft of 2022. Those players are just beginning their careers. Some graduated high school only four or five months ago. Today, we are look at the 2021 draft and see how the first full seasons of these kids' careers have played out. 2021 was the first year that the draft was slimmed down to twenty rounds from its pre-pandemic bloated system. In contrast to the 2022 draft, the Braves focused on college players early and often. They didn't take their first high school player until the seventh round and of the twenty players they selected, only four were true high school players.
Like last week, I'll give the player's round and overall selection when I focus on them. In future drafts, I will probably skip those players that didn't sign with rare exceptions, but I only have one player in this draft who didn't sign after the draft so I'll mention him.
As always, would love to hear from you either in the comment section or on Twitter.
1.24 RHP Ryan Cusick - There was no doubt coming into the 2021 draft that Ryan Cusick had major league stuff. His fastball had been clocked at triple digits and his curveball was one of the better ones in the draft. The problem with Cusick was two-fold. Would the change-up be good enough to keep him as a starter and would he able to harness his control well enough for his big-time pitches to be effective? Well, that's no longer the Braves' concern as he was part of the package of players that went to the Oakland A's for Matt Olson. He flashed that big-time stuff in 2021 after the draft with 34 K's in 16.1 innings. This year has been an ugly mess for Cusick as his control was all over the place and he only threw 43 innings because of injury. When he did pitch, he managed a 7.12 ERA with all but two of his innings at Double-A. Cusick could rise to the bigs in a flash if puts it together, but this year seemed to prove he's still a long ways from that.
2.59 SP Spencer Schwellenbach - Before his injury while still at the University of Nebraska, Schwellenbach looked like a late-first round pick. However, Tommy John surgery ended that dream, but it made him a great value choice in the second round for the Braves. The belief was that while Schwellenbach would miss the remainder of 2021, he could be penciled in to get his feet wet during 2022. Though he started to pitch in April, he never made it to the mound during the season. For that reason, it's very hard to get a read on Schwellenbach. Even going back to his college days, he was more known as a shortstop than a pitcher, only pitching in 18 games in his final year of 2021 - all as a reliever. What we know is that he has high-90's heat and two secondary pitches that both can play in a slider and changeup. He's extremely raw, but he could be the guy that becomes a fast-rising prospect in 2023.
3.96 LHP Dylan Dodd - While Cusick has struggled and Schwellenbach has been on the mend, Dodd has flourished as a professional. A three-year star at SE Missouri State and battery mate of 2022 10th rounder, Andrew Keck, Dodd K'd 20 in 14 innings following the draft before having a big 2022. In 16 starts with Rome, he struck out over a batter an inning with a microscopic walk rate. He continued that through nine starts at Double-A Mississippi and one final start in Triple-A where he nearly completed seven innings in a winning effort. Overall, in 26 starts, Dodd threw 142 innings, struck out 153, and walked just 31. He also limited the long ball, giving up 10 homers. Dodd lives off his change-up with low 90's heat. He adds a slider and a curve. Dodd isn't a big prospect, but projects as a potential #4 with his pitchability and control. Dodd could be in the mix next year.
4.126 SS Cal Conley - Hey, a position player! The former Texas Tech Red Raider followed up an impressive 2021 season in the Big-12 (.980 OPS) with 35 games with Augusta to finish out the year. This year, he returned to Augusta before a mid-July promotion to Rome. Overall, he flashed the power that makes him exciting with 20 doubles, 7 triples, and 16 homers. He also swiped 36 bases, a surprise after stealing just 7 in 56 games with Texas Tech. He's now finishing up his first full season in the Arizona Fall League. The son of a former minor leaguer and coach, Conley is a switch hitter with the athleticism, but lacks a big arm and the defense profiles as okay at best. He seems best suited for a utility player role or second-division starter at second base. The hit tool was supposed to be his hallmark, though he hit just .251 this year. He'll need to hit for a higher average or get more selective at the plate. The pop and speed, however, are exciting.
5.157 SS Luke Waddell - The first of back-to-back Georgia Tech selections, Waddell was a four-year regular as a Yellow Jacket who developed some extra pop in his final year to go with an improving hit tool. His 2021 included an eight-game run in Mississippi after hitting .304 in 21 games in Rome. He even finished with a .312 run in 18 games in the AFL. He was a guy to watch in 2022, but he played only 41 games due to a back strain. Like Conley, Waddell gives the impression of a utility player due to an absence of an impact tool. That said, he's a heady player with good plate discipline who can play a capable shortstop. If his back issues are put behind him, Waddell might be starting at Gwinnett next spring.
6.187 LF Justyn-Henry Malloy - No Braves pick from 2021 upped his stock more in 2022 than Malloy. After an impressive showing with Augusta following the draft, Malloy opened this year in Rome and terrorized South Atlantic League pitching to the tune of .304/.409/.479. A move to Mississippi quieted his bat some, but he still on-based over .400 and slugged six homers in 54 games. Like Dodd, he finished the year in Gwinnett, hitting .280 there with a homer. Malloy shows a mature approach at the plate, walking 97 times this year. There is some swing-and-miss here, but he drives the ball so well (ISO = .165) that you shrug at the K's. Like Conley, he's continuing his 2022 campaign in the Arizona Fall League and walked three times in his debut. There was some home he could stick at third base following the draft, but after 17 errors in 51 games there this season, he was moved to left field and that's probably his best position. The hard-hitting right-handed force might not open 2023 with the Braves, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him in an Atlanta uniform at some point next summer. A heavy-pull hitter, the ban on shifting might aid Malloy some.
7.217 RHP AJ Smith-Shawver - You want electric stuff and velocity? Smith-Shawver brings it in spades. But as you might expect from a 19-year-old, there is still a lot to work on here. A former two-sport star and teammate of Bobby Witt Jr. at Colleyville Heritage High School, a suburb of Dallas-Fort Worth, Smith-Shawver was hitting the high 90's this year in Augusta. The problem is the strike zone was jumping all over the place for him. He still carried a 2.6 K/BB rate, a testament to how many batters he was striking out. He also uncorked a dozen wild pitches, hit five batters, and finished five innings in just seven of his 17 starts. He hit the IL in early August and missed the rest of the year with an undisclosed injury. Smith-Shawver has a tremendous slider and is getting a feel for a change-up. The ceiling is very high here if he can turn the raw potential into performance.
8.247 OF Tyler Collins - Another high school kid out from the Dallas area, some of the comparisons after the draft were seriously exciting for Collins with Braves front office executive, Dana Brown, even bringing up Kenny Lofton. The speed is seriously exciting with Collins, but we didn't see much of it this year as he spent much of the year on the shelf, playing just four games in the Florida Coast League. He owned the FCL the previous summer, posting a 140 wRC+ in 85 PA with a dozen steals. There's a lot to be excited about with Collins, though not getting a follow-up season has us waiting to see what he can truly do.
9.277 C Liam McGill - Two prep stars from Texas in a row was enough as the Braves went for a senior sign like McGill. It was a cost-cutting move for the Braves as McGill got the lowest bonus of any Braves pick. The brother of a former Braves minor catcher, Shawn McGill, Liam was your typical pick in the 7-10th round designed to save slot money. A four-year player at Columbia, McGill hit .471 against weaker competition with Bryant University. He added a .754 OPS in a dozen games following the draft and then, probably because he studied economics at COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, McGill retired and took a position as an investment banking analyst with HSBC.
10.307 RHP Dylan Spain - One of the most interesting selections was Spain, a 6'6" righty out of Hawaii. He opted out of playing college ball to focus solely on his own pitching. He would have an eye-opening summer in the Braves' system after signing for pennies to save slot money. He tossed 17.2 scoreless innings between rookie, low-A, and high-A stops. He paired that with just four walks compared to 21 K's. Unfortunately, he didn't find the same level of success in 2022 as he had a 5.30 ERA. He finished on a bit of a roll with a 3.91 ERA over his last dozen appearances, including seven starts. Spain pairs a nice curve with mid-90's heat. He's more of a relief prospect, but a fan favorite considering his unique approach to getting drafted and great start.
11.337 LHP Adam Shoemaker - The only Canadian choice from 2021, Shoemaker has struggled terribly with his control so far. In 43.1 innings, he has walked 31. Sure, he's only allowed one homer and struck out 43, but wildness like that can't be hidden. All that said, there is a reason you go after a 6'6" lefty with mid-90's velocity: potential. The Braves have been very careful with Shoemaker to this point due to the fact he pitched so little because of Covid protocols in Canada, but there's no doubt that Shoemaker is an intriguing option moving forward.
12.367 RHP Andrew Hoffman - A transfer to Illinois, Hoffman had a big 2021 campaign with the Hoosiers, propelling him into a 12th-round selection. He kept the good feelings going with seven solid starts in Augusta to finish the season. Another 15 excellent starts with Rome and Hoffman was on his way. Yep, on his way to Kansas City as part of a three-player deal for the 35th selection of the 2022 draft (AJ Ritchie). Moved up to Double-A, Hoffman's great run finally came to a close as he finished with a 6.64 ERA. Hoffman is a pitchability guy with more control and smarts than stuff. That said, there's enough here to see a possible #4 or maybe multiple-inning relief guy.
13.397 C Adam Zebrowski - The second of three catchers taken in the 2021 draft, Zebrowski had a video game stats final season with St. John Fisher in 2021, hitting an even .500 with 26 walks to just 13 K's and 20 dingers. That's just stupid. Unsurprisingly, he came back to Earth after the draft against better competition. That said, his first full season was definitely a success. Yeah, he hit only .223, but he added a .351 OBP and .397 SLG. Now, unfortunately, he only threw out 16% of potential basestealers. If that improves, you can do a lot worse than a catcher with a .750ish OPS. Just ask the Mets.
14.427 IF Caleb Durbin - A three-year starter at Washington University in St. Louis, MO, Durbin is another in an enlarging group of high-floor Braves infielders with a real shot at being a utility player and just enough projection to hope for more. A shortstop in college, he still plays there, but also shifts to second and third. Overall, he's hit just .244 since being drafted, but his .351 OBP is good and he's shown enough pop to keep his OPS over .700 despite the low average. He's also shown plenty of speed, swiping 43 bases. Durbin finished 2022 with Rome and my bet is he will return there to open 2023.
15.457 OF Christian Robinson - The 6'2" left-handed hitter was one of the best recruits Stanford ever got who actually played for the Cardinals. Nevertheless, he never really stood out in the Pac-12. Even his senior year was just okay in most respects. Robinson, who was also a 2017 draft choice by the Padres, did little to stand out both at Augusta last summer and Rome this summer. On July 23, a day after Durbin joined Rome, Robinson was released. Will another team take a chance on Robinson, who came to Stanford as a toolsy outfielder? We'll see, but there's worse things to fall back on than a psychology degree from Stanford.
16.487 LHP Kris Anglin - The one junior college addition from the draft, Anglin came to the Braves via Howard College in Big Spring, TX. The Bakersfield, California native was impressive in 11.1 innings after the draft, striking out 15. He struggled in 30.1 innings with Augusta to open the 2022 campaign, prompting the Braves to demote him back to the Florida Coast League in hopes of getting him back on track. It seemed to work (2.86 ERA in 22 innings) prior to Anglin being traded to the Tigers for Robbie Grossman. After one more FCL start, he went to the Florida League to finish 2022 and had one great start and one ugly start. Anglin is your average lottery ticket. He has a four-pitch mix, lacks size, and his velocity plays better in the 1980's than it does now. The chances of the Braves regretting the Grossman trade are very low, but never zero.
17.517 C Tyler Tolve - The Braves stayed in Georgia to add Tolve, who was not just born in Atlanta and went to Sprayberry High School in Marietta, but he also attended Kennesaw State University. A lifetime .313 hitter in college, Tolve impressed at Augusta in 2021, hitting .294/.348/.447 over 23 games. He then added to a shockingly good start to his professional career in Rome this year, batting .261/.339/.470 with 12 dingers in 75 games. In addition to catching in college, Tolve bounced around to the outfield and played some third base in summer ball as well, but outside of one game in right field, has stuck behind the plate. The swing-and-miss is the real problem with Tolve, who has struck out in 32% of his professional plate appearances. If he can cut that down without sacrificing pop, and adding a bit to 8.6% walk rate, Tolve has a bit of the "it" factor that could excite. Athletic behind the plate, he also swiped eight bases this year. Long story short, Tolve is going to have a lot of eyes on him next year to see if he can keep building on what we've seen so far. I have not done my prospect rankings let alone the positional ones, but hard not to think Tolve isn't a favorite to line up behind Drake Baldwin for the top spot.
18.547 RHP Austin Smith - After three years with the Southwestern University Pirates in Texas, Smith transferred to the University of Arizona in 2021. The results did little to help his draft position, but the Braves definitely feel there is something here. After a half-dozen outings in Augusta to end 2021, Smith spent this year in Rome and nailed down 13 saves, second-best in the organization. While he seemed prone to bad luck (explaining his 4.62 ERA), his strikeout rate of 11.3 K/9 plays. He's prone to bouts of wildness (18 walks, 7 hit batters, 6 wild pitches), but he shows glimpses as a potential shutdown arm. The Braves are so high on Smith that they sent him to the Arizona Fall League. He can hit the high-90's with a good slider. If the Braves are able to develop this power reliever into a good piece for the bullpen, this is going to be one hell of a valuable 18th rounder.
19.577 P Samuel Strickland - A lefty out of Samford University, Strickland was impressive this year when healthy. In 14 games, including 11 starts, he struck out 60 in 60.2 innings and allowed just three homers. That gave him a FIP of 3.55. Strickland finished the year on the IL. He can consistently stay in the mid-90's going into the third time through the order. As a reliever, he'd probably hit the high-90's. The belief is that he'll be moved to relief, but then again, this Braves regime doesn't always do what they are expected.
20.607 OF Ty Evans - The only draftee over the last two seasons who the Braves did not sign. Instead, Evans honored his commitment to the University of Florida and was a regular there as a freshman. Evans was considered a fairly strong commitment, explaining why the 121st player according to Perfect Game lasted into the 20th round. By the way, he went to Lakeland Christian School and played high school baseball under a familiar face - former Brave Matt Diaz.
And that’s all she wrote for the 2021 draft. After the first full season, of the 19 players that signed, three have already been dealt, one retired, and another has been released. Of the 14 that remain, there is the high-end potential of Schwellenbach and Smith-Shawver, the emerging Malloy, the utility-types like Waddell and Conley, and of course a couple of sleepers. I like Tolve probably way more than I should and the strong arms of Shoemaker and Smith are very intriguing.
Overall, this draft has already helped the Braves acquire a franchise cornerstone and potential middle-of-the-rotation arm with projection like Ritchie. Anything more you can is just gravy.
Next week, we’ll dive into the very short, but already quite productive 2020 draft. If you’d like to know when that goes live, feel free to subscribe or follow me on Twitter.