TOT - Braves Are Forced to Deal Millwood
With Greg Maddux unexpectedly back, the Braves had to make a tough decision.
Transaction of Today - December 20, 2002...The Atlanta Braves trade Kevin Millwood to the Philadelphia Phillies for Johnny Estrada
The winter of 2002-03 was a bit of a challenging one for the Atlanta Braves. Winners of 101 games the previous season before a first-round loss to the Giants in the NLDS, the Braves had to embrace a little change. The team was aging with players like Javy Lopez, Gary Sheffield, and Vinny Castilla about to enter their walk years. The stellar bullpen lost multiple All-Star free agents that winter with Chris Hammond and Mike Remlinger each signing multi-year contracts. Former replacement player, Kerry Ligtenberg, also bolted for a bigger payday.
But nowhere was change more inevitable than the starting rotation. The Big Three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz was already somewhat broken up with Smoltz moving to the closer role in '01. But following the 2002 season, with the duo of Maddux and Glavine combining for a sub-3 ERA in over 400 innings of work, the Braves had a tough decision. Both were free agents.
Keeping both was not an option. The team had already traded away Marquis Grissom and David Justice in an unpopular deal several years before to afford contract extensions for the future 300-game winners. But now, both were coming off their Age-36 year. While they remained productive, the idea of sinking so much money into both was a non-starter.
And that wasn't the only problem. Ted Turner was no longer the owner, willing to spend whatever it took to produce a contender. AOL Time Warner was now the Braves' corporate daddy and they saw a team that was bleeding money, losing upwards of $20+ million each year. While team president, Stan Kastan, and Braves general manager, John Schuerholz, said that AOL Time Warner wasn't pushing the organization to drastically cut salary to stop losing money, the truth was that the Braves were no longer going to be among the top spenders in baseball. Their $93.5 million payroll in 2002 did increase to $106 million in 2003, but would sharply drop to $88.5 million and $85.1 million over 2004-05.
Unsurprisingly, the Braves were put up for sale in 2003 before being taken off the market. Finally, the Braves were sold for $1.5 billion to Liberty Media in 2007.
But let's circle back to the winter of 2002.
The Braves had a choice to make. Drop salary elsewhere on the roster to retain the services of both Maddux and Glavine, which seemed like a non-starter. Or choose one or the other to invest in as they transition their rotation toward a new era. The Braves were also returning Kevin Millwood, Damian Moss, and Jason Marquis - a trio that combined for 85 starts in 2002.
Millwood, especially, seemed to have taken a major step forward in his development after a pair of down years following his 1999 break-out. In 35 games, including 34 starts, he finished 2002 with a 3.24 ERA, a 3.29 FIP, and 178 strikeouts. Like Sheffield, Lopez, and Castilla, Millwood was entering his walk year in 2003. That would also be his Age-28 season and the Braves considered Millwood a bridge toward the future. He was a southern boy from North Carolina, young enough to deserve a rich extension, and had finished 3rd in the Cy Young vote in 1999. While there were questions about his consistency year in and year out, Millwood was the power pitcher who could solidify the top of the rotation.
Adding either Glavine or Maddux to that top of the rotation with Millwood would make a ton of sense, too. That would keep the team as a strong contender for the NL East title.
The Braves settled on Glavine. It made the most sense. He was drafted a Brave, had spent his entire career with the team, and was so entrenched with "The Streak" that imagining him playing anywhere else seemed impossible.
Twenty-one years later, all bad feelings have gone away, but it's undeniable that the Braves effectively low-balled Glavine with a ridiculous first offer that probably set everything in place for a painful divorce. Atlanta's opening offer was a one-year, $9 million contract with a series of club options. Schuerholz likened it to a "lifetime commitment" and said Glavine's salary would never be reduced and he was promised a job in the organization once he retired. Of course, what Schuerholz didn't say was that the Braves could effectively get rid of Glavine after any season, meaning that if Glavine had a rocky 2003, the Braves could simply cast him away. Not a very good offer for the pitcher in that situation.
Glavine's agent countered with a $45 million demand over four seasons with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets all vying for his services. Glavine's preference was the Braves, but the best the Braves offered was $30 million over three years with a fourth-year option valued between $6 and $10 million. The Braves were also asking Glavine to defer much of his 2004 and 2005 salaries as part of the deal. Instead, Glavine signed with the Mets for $35 million over three years with a fourth-year option.
Reeling, the Braves never seemed like a real player for Maddux. But the market wasn't as robust as one might think it would be for one of the greatest pitchers to ever play. Teams, in general, were trying to get their spending reigned in. Allegations of collusion were made as many free agents struggled to find acceptable contracts. Even low-cost arbitration-eligible players were cut to save a few bucks. Notably, David Ortiz was non-tendered by the Twins despite an arbitration payday that likely wouldn't have been more than $2 million. He'd receive $1.25 million on the free agent market from the Red Sox. Many other players saw their salaries reduced dramatically - even if they had a fairly decent season.
And then there was Maddux, who couldn't find a big contract. The Braves did offer him arbitration. That was considered a formality to receive draft pick compensation once Maddux did sign elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the Braves planned for life beyond Maddux (and, eventually, Glavine). On November 18, they traded Tim Spooneybarger and a minor leaguer to the Marlins for Mike Hampton, with the Marlins (and the Rockies) paying much of his remaining salary. During the early days of the winter meetings, they concluded a deal that sent Moss to San Francisco for Russ Ortiz. The following day, they added steady veteran, Paul Byrd. The expectation was that Millwood, Ortiz, Hampton, and Byrd would form the core of the rotation while Marquis and others would vie for the fifth-starter spot.
But that got wrecked a day later when Maddux accepted his arbitration offer. Oh, his agent, Scott Boras, said all the nice things. Maddux had unfinished business and, despite interest from multiple teams, he would rather bet on himself for another year in Atlanta before hitting the free agent market again. But the truth was that the market was drying up quickly for Maddux. The Phillies, the other suitor for Glavine, didn't have quite the same interest in Maddux as they had the southpaw. Maddux was faced with a decision to wait out the market or try again after 2003. He chose the latter.
But that decision put the Braves in a tough place. Bringing back Maddux at nearly $15 million was not part of the calculus. The Braves were already on the hook for $4.7 million for Ortiz, $3 million for Byrd, and their portion of the $13.6 million owed to Hampton. Further, Millwood was owed a substantial increase on the $3.9 million he made in 2002. He'd later receive a shade under $10 million for the 2003 season.
Twenty-four hours after Maddux's decision rocked the Braves, the Braves concluded a trade twenty-one years ago on this day to send Millwood to the Phillies for catcher Johnny Estrada.
The rare switch-hitting catcher, Estrada developed nicely as a contract-orientated catcher for the Phillies. He was given a tough situation in 2001 after longtime Phillies backstop, Mike Lieberthal, missed much of the season with injury. Estrada hit just .228/.273/.359 as the Phillies' primary catcher that season. He spent most of 2002 in the minors, finishing with a .739 OPS in Triple-A. Estrada had major-league potential. Maybe even starter-level potential. But he was not a good haul for Millwood.
But the Braves had no choice but to find a new home for the guy who seemed like he was likely an extension target rather than a future free agent. Of course, like Maddux, Millwood was represented by Scott Boras. Nevertheless, Millwood was expected to do big things for the Braves in '03, not get traded for a decent, albeit older, catching prospect. But everyone saw the Braves’ dilemma and top-tier offers weren’t coming in for Millwood.
Estrada would shine for Richmond in 2003 as his services were not needed in Atlanta with Javy Lopez having a stellar season. With Lopez bolting after '03, Estrada took over as the Braves' full-time catcher and had a marvelous 2004 campaign. He slashed .314/.378/.450 with 36 doubles, nine homers, and 76 RBI. His success led to an All-Star appearance, a Silver Slugger, and an 18th-place finish in the MVP vote. He even excelled in the playoffs, going 6-for-17 with two homers in the Braves' NLDS loss to the Astros.
Despite his good season, Estrada was a bridge player. The Braves had Brian McCann on the way and the latter would would take over the following year as Estrada's OPS fell over 150 points and injuries, along with McCann's play, limited him to 105 games. The Braves would trade Estrada to Arizona the following winter. While Estrada had a nice bounceback season in 2006, he would move around the league over the final few years of his career, never finding a home.
Meanwhile, Millwood's career never seemed to pan out the way it was expected to, either. He'd finish 2003 with a 3.8 rWAR and a no-hitter but found his market similar to Maddux's the previous winter - underwhelming. He accepted arbitration to return to Philadelphia and struggled. A rebound followed in 2005 with Cleveland with a 4.0 rWAR campaign. Finally, he landed the big contract, this time from Texas. He performed well in the first year of the contract, excelled in his final year with Texas in '09, and struggled in the two seasons in the middle. Three final years with the Orioles, Rockies, and Mariners followed with a combined 2.0 rWAR combined. The excellence of his 1999 season, where he finished with a 6.2 rWAR, and the bounceback effort of his 2002 season in Atlanta were not previews of Millwood's pending rise to rotation ace, but a preview of the pitcher he was about to become. He had four seasons of 3.8 rWAR or better. He also had nine seasons where he failed to reach 1 rWAR.
So, in some ways, maybe Maddux saved the Braves from a long-term extension to Millwood that would have hurt the team while they were also reducing overall salary. Had they given a four or five-year deal to Millwood, they would have likely seen an excellent year or two. They also would have seen years of inconsistency with very poor return on investment.
But then there was the other impact that came from Maddux accepting arbitration. The Braves would be skittish to offer arbitration moving forward, missing out on draft pick compensation for Sheffield, Lopez, and J.D. Drew among others. That eliminated potential talent from the system heading into the leaner years of 2006-11 where the franchise would appear in the playoffs just once.