TOT - Braves Move on From Gausman
A year after trading for him, the Braves give up on Kevin Gausman. He'd find his way later.
Transaction of Today...August 5, 2023 - The Cincinnati Reds selected Kevin Gausman off waivers from the Atlanta Braves.
Sometimes, it's all about fit.
No one ever doubted Kevin Gausman's potential going back to the time he was a sixth-round pick out of high school or when he was the fourth overall selection as an LSU Tiger. Just a year later, he was already in a Baltimore Oriole uniform. He had a 3.57 ERA in 2014 and a 3.61 ERA in 30 starts during 2016. Gausman was headed to bigger and brighter things.
But something happened prior to that. He stopped progressing. At the age of 26, he led the AL in starts, but his ERA pushed up to 4.68 with a 4.48 FIP. Homers were a problem as he surrendered 29 of them to go with a concerning 71 walks (or 3.4 BB/9). But with his youth and skills, the expectation was that he would rebound. With three years remaining prior to free agency, the question was whether Baltimore would try to keep Gausman to help lead their rebuilding staff or would they trade them to maximize his value?
Unfortunately, Gausman's pitching to open 2018 kept either option from being a real reality. He didn't bounce back to his 2016 numbers. Rather, he stagnated, posting a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts. At that point, the Orioles pivoted, hoping to get whatever they could for Gausman. They found a buyer in Atlanta, trading Gausman with Darren O'Day for reliever Evan Phillips, a trio of minor leaguers (Bruce Zimmermann, Brett Cumberland, JC Encarnacion), and some international bonus slot money.
With the surging Braves, looking to get back to the playoffs, Gausman seemed to surge right with them. In ten starts, he had a 2.87 ERA over 59.2 innings. The strikeouts were still a bit down, but he limited the homers and kept the Braves in most of his starts. They'd win seven of them as well. Gausman wouldn't start one of the four games in the NLDS, but did appear in a game out of the pen, allowing two runs in two innings but also striking out four.
A lot was hoped for Gausman in 2019. Arguably, the move was made for 2019 and 2020 than 2018 anyway. Gone were veterans Anibal Sanchez and Brandon McCarthy. With a still-young trio of Mike Foltynewicz, Julio Teheran, and Sean Newcomb having all completed seasons with an ERA of 3.94 or less, Gausman looked like a great #4. They also had Michael Soroka, Max Fried, and Michael Soroka who all started five games in 2018.
Gausman's first start of the season was dominant, shutting down the Marlins over seven scoreless innings with two hits allowed, two walks, and seven Ks. But he struggled in three of his next four starts (minus a ten-K outing against Arizona) to end April with a 4.80 ERA. In May, he did well for the most part until back-to-back awful games to end May and open June led to 15 runs in 6 innings.
On June 10, facing the Pirates, he gave up four runs (two earned) in 2.1 innings and soon landed on the IL. His ERA had ballooned up to 6.21, though to be fair, his 4.18 FIP showed that he was probably a bit on the unlucky side. Plus, if he had pitched with the lumbar strain that landed him on the IL, that might have hurt his numbers as well.
Gausman would return on July 21, throwing seven very solid innings against the Nationals with 8 K's. He'd struggle some his next time out and his next start against the Reds saw Gausman fail to make it out of his fifth. His ERA had climbed back to 6.19.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Braves waived Gausman after his start against the Reds. Sure, his numbers weren't great. His infield rate was uncharacteristically low and his fastball velocity was down. Okay, maybe it's not too surprising that they cut him, but it's not as if Gausman was being terribly pushed. Soroka, Teheran, and Fried were established in the rotation along with new hire, Dallas Keuchel. And sure, Foltynewicz was, at the time, considered a part of the future. But it's not like Foltynewicz had excelled in 2019 either. Neither had Newcomb, who was moved to the pen.
All of that said, with the Braves’ depth - plus a pretty full bullpen that had just brought in Shane Greene and Mark Melancon - it was hard to find a place for Gausman if the Braves wanted to return Foltynewicz to the majors. Further, with Gausman headed to a $10+ million payday in his final year of arbitration, the Braves may have figured that they were already going to move on and that Gausman was no longer needed.
On this day in 2019, the former Oriole went to his new team via waivers. Gausman's latest squad was the one that rocked him in his final start with the Braves. Cincinnati added Trevor Bauer at the deadline to join an already deep rotation that included Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray. In fact, Gausman didn't have a spot in the rotation so he headed to the bullpen. He'd re-establish some value there, striking out 20 in 22.1 innings with a 4.03 ERA and 3.17 FIP. But with the Reds bringing back their starters, there was no room for Gausman. That December, the Reds simply non-tendered him.
At that point, Gausman could have turned into another name in the long series of pitchers who bounced from club to club, each team hoping the former potential he once had could result in good numbers. He signed a one-year deal with the Giants, betting that a trip out west could cure his problems.
It worked like gangbusters. His velocity returned and, with the Giants, he learned to trust his splitter and it became a weapon. Hitters stopped focusing on his heater which, with improved velocity and spin, helped the pitch find some increased value. He matched his fWAR from 2019 despite the pandemic-shortened season. Suddenly, Gausman was valuable at $9 million a year after looking like a bust at $9.35 million.
Gausman looked like a sneaky buy for a team heading into the 2020-21 offseason. If that wasn't to be the Giants, they prepared for it by extending the right-hander a qualifying offer. Gausman accepted it, re-upping with the Giants for another year. The bet would pay off as Gausman finally had the full season the Orioles had waited to see. In 33 starts, he finished with a 2.81 ERA, a 3.52 xERA, and 4.8 fWAR. He hit the 200-K plateau for the first time, went to his first All-Star Game, and finished sixth in the Cy Young vote.
San Francisco hoped to keep Gausman for the long term and it seemed like a great fit considering his unprecedented success there. However, Gausman inked a $110 million contract over five seasons with the Blue Jays instead. But once again, the chance Gausman took paid off well. He's had the best FIP in the AL over the last two years to go with an impressive 3.29 ERA. His 382 strikeouts rank third behind Gerrit Cole and Spencer Strider. There's not a pitcher in baseball that can match his 9.8 fWAR since he slipped on a Blue Jays jersey.
Sometimes, players need the right fit, the right time, the right coach, the right amount of data. For Gausman, that didn't happen in Baltimore and it certainly didn't happen in Atlanta. It wasn't until he arrived in his fourth organization after the pandemic. Gausman finally unlocked his potential in San Francisco. Now, he's one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Not too shabby for someone who was waived, in part, to avoid paying the rest of his contract.
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