Turning the Page

The Braves will be back and maybe I'm back, too

To say the 2024 season did not end the way the Atlanta Braves thought it could is an understatement.

Flush with talent up and down the roster, including the return of baseball's most dominant lineup and a deep rotation, the 2024 campaign was shaping up to be amazing. Sure, Shohei Ohtani went to the Dodgers to join Freddie Freeman and Juan Soto was with the Yankees, but the Braves didn't need much and still added Chris Sale and potential breakout player Jarred Kelenic. The expectations were sky-high.

Well, at least, Sale worked out.

We should have realized from the beginning that 2024 was never meant to go as we envisioned it would. In his third at-bat of the year, as the Braves cruised to a 9-3 opening-day victory in Philadelphia, Sean Murphy injured his oblique. He would miss nearly two months of action and never really looked like the guy who had impressed early the previous season. It was just the beginning, of course. A year after eight regulars started at least 130 games, only three hit that mark in 2024. The Braves got just 110 games each out of Austin Riley and Michael Harris II. Ozzie Albies clocked in at 99. Ronald Acuña Jr. was out right before his 50th game of the year.

In their place was a collection of guys thrown away by other teams. Ramon Laureano became a middle-of-the-order hitter. Whit Merrifield and Gio Urshela were regulars, which no one wanted in 2024. The Braves, desperate for any offensive production, took on Jorge Soler's contract from the Giants. They even brought back Luke Jackson with Soler because re-acquiring Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario had worked wonders.

But it wasn't just the injuries. Across the roster, there was a bit of Sean Murphy in everyone. Outside of Marcell Ozuna, almost everyone failed to live up to their 2023 success. Orlando Arcia especially became a liability in the lineup. As for Kelenic, the main offensive addition from the previous winter, he had some nice streaks. He also had some prolonged struggles and became a forgotten man in September.

Yet the team won 89 games. Largely, this was due to the best ERA in the league at 3.49. That success was despite losing Spencer Strider after two starts, A.J. Minter missing much of the year, and Max Fried's yearly trip to the IL. Unlike the offense, where the Braves were missing players, others stepped in. Reynaldo Lopez, though limited by his own injuries, finished with a 1.99 ERA in 135.2 innings. Spencer Schwellenbach, after just 110 innings in the minors, threw 123.2 innings in the majors with a 3.35 ERA. Grant Holmes logged 68.2 important innings with a 3.20 FIP. Aaron Bummer, part of a series of contrived deals designed to get Kelenic while also shrinking the amount of the guys on the 40-man roster, admirably replaced Minter and the disappointing Tyler Matzek, who never "found it" in his return.

Despite the pitching success, the Braves should not have been a playoff team, but with the expanded playoffs, they barely backed into one of the open spots. Once there, the drained and tired Braves - now missing Sale - mustered little resistance against the Padres. In their final game of the year, Fried, likely in his final start with the team, gave up a handful of runs while recording just six outs.

And as if that wasn't enough, after the season, the bad news kept rolling in. Joe Jimenez, one of the game's elite middle relievers, underwent surgery to repair cartilage damage in his left knee. He will miss, at least, much of the 2025 campaign - perhaps as much as all of it. Just to throw a cherry on top, Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos doesn't expect either Acuña or Strider to open the season with the team as they rehab their injuries. Maybe that was expected from the beginning, but it still was a punch to the stomach to hear it confirmed.

2024 was just not meant to be.

But luckily, this isn't Netflix and a new season is confirmed. A new hitting coach has been brought in. It was unfair to blame Kevin Seitzer for 2024's failures at the plate - and I don't think he was completely - but head(s) will roll when a team hits as poorly as the Braves did last season. 53-year-old Tim Hyers, a Georgia boy so you know that is kind of perfect, will join the Braves to replace Seitzer. He's bounced around a bit, serving as the hitting coach for the Red Sox in 2021 and the Rangers the last three years. I will probably talk more about his philosophy later.

The Braves have also been busy - essentially restructuring the deals of Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer to open up some cash for the 2025 campaign. They declined Travis d'Arnaud's $8 million option for next season, as well. D'Arnaud, who turns 36 in February, slashed .238/.302/.436 with 15 homers last year - pretty much in line with his career numbers. If I were a betting man, I would give better-than-average odds that d'Arnaud returns on a smaller deal. That said, with Drake Baldwin's .807 OPS since he was drafted in 2022, plus a stellar start to his run in the Arizona Fall League, along with the bigger needs at shortstop and left field, the Braves might consider a second hefty salary at catcher a luxury they can live without.

Further, the Braves found a new home for Jorge Soler and, more importantly, Jorge Soler's contract. The 2021 World Series hero was on pace to earn $13 million in each of the following two seasons and would have been a fine hitter to add to the Braves lineup in 2025. However, the Braves were always going to bring back Marcell Ozuna, whose option was exercised, and Ronald Acuña Jr. might need some DH time as he returns from his second ACL injury. Soler, who was a liability in the outfield last year after the Braves acquired him, didn't fit into the picture anymore.

All told, the moves, which included not picking up Luke Jackson's $7 million option, saved the team about $35 million. That number assumes the Braves will non-tender Griffin Canning, the arm they acquired in the Soler trade who is due to earn between $5 and $6 million in arbitration. Not a bad start to piecing together a 2025 roster that still needs a starting pitcher, possibly a reliever, a new option at shortstop, and a bat in left field.

Another way of looking at the numbers is that the Braves had an adjusted payroll of $236 million in 2024. It's worth noting that if you look back toward 2021, the Braves' adjusted payroll has climbed between $20 and $30 million every year. But even if we don't assume a similar jump for 2025, if the Braves are willing to spend around $235 million for 2025, they're already at around $30 million available. That number goes up nearly $12 million if the Braves, as expected, non-tender Canning and Ramon Laureano. The Braves don't have a lot of holes and have roughly $42 million to fill those holes. And, again, that is assuming the Braves don't raise payroll any.

Or, to sum up, as bad as things were in 2024, we have plenty of reasons to assume that 2025 will be much better. Mike Petriello of MLB recently ranked the 30 teams based on their current rosters before free agents started to sign using WAR estimates for 2025. The Dodgers ranked first at 48.6 WAR. The Braves ranked second with 48.5.

Now, much work is needed. They need a starter. If Charlie Morton decides he wants to pitch in 2025 and the Braves bring him back, I would argue that the Braves probably still need a starter considering the fact Strider won't be ready for opening day and questions remain about Sale and Lopez. Also, let's be honest, Morton is at the age where a dropoff could be quick and harsh. Adding a shortstop makes a ton of sense, though the relatively few options on the market combined with other teams having the same big need might make that tough. Adding a strong bat to left field could be a nice consolation prize to missing out on a replacement for Arcia. As for a reliever, it's not the biggest need with the arms that are coming back, but adding another big arm to the mix would be useful.

It's a long offseason and Anthopoulos is ready to get to work. Looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

I hope to write often through the offseason. Writing helps my ability to stay in tune with what's happening with the Braves, but more importantly, it makes me happy. I think many of us can use things that just help our mental state right now. You can find me on Twitter at @walkoffwalk1. I'm also beginning to use Bluesky more and you can find me there as well via @walkoffwalk. Please feel free to subscribe to this blog as well.