Braves Free Agent Preview: Middle Infielders

The Braves are just as set at second as they are in need of a solution at shortstop

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The Rotation
The Bullpen
Catchers & Corner Infielders
Middle Infielders
Outfield & DH

So far, I felt as if the Braves may have limited interest in getting involved in the free agent market. A starter would be great and a reliever makes sense, but the Braves have depth options at both that also appear like good plays. The Braves are pretty good as-is at catcher and at the corners on the infield so it seems doubtful they will add there.

But today, the interest will be heavy at shortstop. I'll also talk about second base, but the biggest priority the team currently faces is who will be manning shortstop in 2023.

2023 Middle Infielders at a Glance

• Ozzie Albies - $7 million

• Orlando Arcia - $1.3 million

• Vaughn Grissom - $800K (team control)

• Free Agents - Ehire Adrianza and Dansby Swanson

• Prospects - Cal Conley, Braden Shewmake, Luke Waddell

Ozzie's Terrible 2022

Prior to 2022, Ozzie Albies was a fairly durable player, having played in 150+ games in each of his first three full seasons (ignoring the pandemic year). But a broken left foot cost him three months and then, after a lengthy rehab, he broke his pinky during his second game back. The Braves were hopeful he could return prior to or during the playoffs, but he wasn't ready for the NLDS and, spoiler alert, the Braves didn't advance.

When he did play, he struggled at the plate. His barrel% was nearly cut in half from his 2020-21 levels. His average exit velocity was his worst since 2018. And as the season progressed, it seemed idiotic to throw Albies a fastball based on how poorly he was hitting breaking and offspeed pitches plus his career-long poor strikezone awareness. That latter problem only got worse in 2022 as well. His Chase rate has always been above-average, but it was nearly 43% last season That represents not just a 9% increase over last year and his career mark, but 14% above the MLB average. And sure, his chase contact rate is also above-average, but those often aren't the pitches you want to connect on.

Now, to be fair, these type of stats often need the whole season to stabilize, not 64 games, but they were all very concerning numbers.

Albies is still only 25 and 2023 will be his Age-26 season. Improvement is possible if not demanded. We know he can hit the hell out of the ball and ranked within the 73rd percentile in both 2019 and 2021 in expected slugging. But if Albies is to get back to the .350ish wOBA range, like he was in 2019, he's going to need both swing-and-approach adjustments. Otherwise, the 2021 version of Albies might be the best-case scenario. He hit 30 homers that year. He also on-based .310.

A Great Backup Plan

In terms of backups, the Braves have a solid pair behind their middle infield options. Orlando Arcia was a sneaky-good acquisition in 2021 and paid off big in 2022 with Albies missing so much time. A streaky hitter, there were periods where Arcia was a force that couldn't be stopped. Other times, he disappeared completely. Regardless, he easily out-produced Albies.

Let's get one thing straight, though. Arcia is not better than Albies in the field as many have suggested. He's competent enough, of course, and is a better fit at second base than he is at shortstop. At the plate, Arcia hits the ball quite hard (91 mph average exit velocity last year) and has become a more selective hitter and the unsurprising result has been higher statcast marks. Arcia is a guy you could throw out there everyday, though he's best suited for his current role.

Meanwhile, Vaughn Grissom was a revelation last year. Not expected to be a factor in the majors for another year or longer, Grissom came up and hit .291/.353/.440 in 156 PA. Of course, the rub here is that his numbers fell off big-time down the stretch, but the jolt in the arm he gave the Braves was huge.

Now we get to watch how Grissom improves. The book was developing on the boy and pitchers adjusted. He started to receive a steady diet of breaking pitches, which he had an unfortunate 38% whiff rate against. That will have to improve dramatically if he's to carve out a role with the Braves moving forward. With it, he'll need to up his exit velocity significantly. Regardless, when everything was right, Grissom showed glimpses of a starter-level player at the plate. He's not there yet, but he might not be too far away, either.

Defensively, you have to give Grissom a bit of a mulligan. He spent most of his career on the other side of the bag. Nevertheless, there has always been questions whether he had the range to be an everyday middle infielder and he did little to put that to bed. Unfortunately, he didn't flash much of an arm either.

When you add up the deficiencies he did show in 2022, Grissom might be a better play as an utility player where he can utilize a jack-of-all-trades approach to mask the fact he's not a master of any. That should include time in the outfield as well. If he shows an aptitude for that - and I think he can/will - Grissom could become a Mark DeRosa type who even in his best years, was moving around six different positions.

About Those 'Spects

The Braves target shortstops heavily both in the draft and in THE NOW-OPEN INTERNATIONAL FREE AGENT EXTRAVAGANZA. And one of those shortstops is probably a Top 10 prospect for them right now while others - both close and a bit further away - are in the discussion. But the Braves aren't likely to see a full-time starter from that group.

Let's talk about Braden Shewmake first. Currently ranked fifth in MLB Pipeline's Top 30 Braves prospects, Shewmake is a gifted defender and has the arm to make all the throws you'd like to see a shortstop make. The problem is on the offensive side of the ball. Last year with Gwinnett, he posted a wOBA of .318 and while that's not great, it's a significant improvement on the .296 wOBA he had with Mississippi in 2021. He improved his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate, which were good signs, and hit the ball in the air a lot more. The problem is that he doesn't really drive the ball. On a team with eight 100 wRC+ or better, you might be able to deal with a Shewmake in the lineup, but with questions in left field, potentially second base (see above), and - depending on how Brian Snitker does things - designated hitter, the Braves need more offense.

Beyond Shewmake, there is Cal Conley and Luke Waddell. Both are more in the utility player form. Conley's the better offensive weapon of the two with good pop and speed - both of which are on display in the Arizona Fall League right now. But Conley's arm will likely keep him from playing shortstop full-time. Waddell might be better suited to play shortstop in the majors and is a nice pure hitter, but lacks the power and game speed to add much more to the table.

So...Dansby?

I've waited long enough. Let's talk about James Dansby Swanson. I feel like not enough people know his first name is actually James.

Part of the large Georgia contingent that's flashed their skills as a member of the Braves, Swanson's Age-28 season was his finest. He finished a run scored short of the century mark and four RBIs from the same accomplishment. He added 32 doubles, 25 homers, and a career-high 18 steals. His defense helped him finish with a 6.4 fWAR, a full three runs above his best total.

But for all that was impressive about Swanson's 2022, you can't help but look at his overall numbers and think, "wait, I thought he was having a better year?" He on-based just .329, finished with a .337 wOBA, and a new high in strikeout percentage. After the All-Star Break, Swanson hit just .254/.298/.404. And then, there was the playoffs where Swanson went 1-for-16 with a walk and seven K's.

This might be a little ticky-tacky because I'm still talking about a player who may have had the best all-around season by a shortstop in franchise history. And all of that is true. But there's a reason when you take a step back and look at Swanson's offensive numbers, you aren't blown away.

Now, here's where I also mention his defense. It certainly was Gold Glove-caliber and with extreme shifts banned moving forward, having a strong defensive shortstop becomes even more important. Getting a 20 outs-above-average season is no small feat. Swanson played a brilliant shortstop in 2022 and, if he's not re-signed, that will be difficult to replace.

What Else Is Out There?

Luckily for the Braves, there is a lot out there to look at. The position will be full of talented options that will be available for a small super-hefty price.

• Trea Turner - A Braves nemesis for years, Turner finished 2022 with a .350 wOBA. It was his worst wOBA in four years. For the second-consecutive year, Turner hit the six-win mark. He hit 21 homers, stole 27 bases, and was one of the biggest offensive forces in baseball. At best, Turner is league-average defensively at shortstop. Whoever (whomever?) signs him long-term will likely have to prepare for the inevitable move to second base. After all, he's not Derek Jeter, am I right? If you're curious, Albies is signed through at least 2025 with a pair of cheap team options as well.

• Xander Bogaerts - Already 30, I don't think enough people realize how good Bogaerts has been for years. Since 2015, only eleven position players have more fWAR than Bogaerts and not one of them are available this offseason (unless the Angels finally entertain a Mike Trout trade). Bogaerts finished 2022 with a .363 wOBA with a 6.1 fWAR. But unlike most shortstop options, there are a few concerning statcast numbers here. His EV was the lowest since his rookie year, his barrel rate took a tumble after being 8% or higher each of the previous four years and his xwOBA of .323 was the lowest since 2017. His swinging strike rate topped double figures for the first time since 2013. On the bright side, his defensive metrics were as good as they've ever been. Now, to be fair to Bogaerts, he played through a nagging left wrist injury which likely had some impact on his 2022 numbers. But a long-term deal for a guy entering his Age-30 season is always a dicey option.

• Carlos Correa - A year after signing a $105.3 million contract with the Twins, Correa will test the market again after opting out. In terms of all-around talent, Correa might be the best option. He just turned 28, is good for a .360ish wOBA, and is a good (though not elite) defender. The problem if Correa is your guy is that he's probably good for a trip to the IL, too. His defense also looked a bit worse last year, though one year fluctuations in defensive metrics isn't abnormal. Prior to the lockout, the Braves were reportedly considering trying to swoop in and sign Correa. Could they be interested in targeting him this offseason?

Before I get to the summing up portion, I wanted to mention Willy Adames. With two years left of team control, might the Brewers consider dealing Adames now to maximize value similar to how they traded Josh Hader? Adames had a down year in 2022, but still put up a 4.7 fWAR because his defensive value was so high. In a way, he's comparable to Swanson (a flawed offensive hitter who can be hard to corral when he's hot and brings defensive value). While not a free agent and not really a focus of this column, if available, he could be an interesting option if Atlanta opts to be a primary driver of the shortstop market.

Summing Up

While the Braves are good at second base, what the Braves do at shortstop is the most important question this offseason. Do they bring back Swanson - knowing full well that he can be pretty bad at the plate for long stretches of time? How about Turner or Bogaerts or Correa? While all have their flaws and concerns, all are All-Stars that could compete for an MVP in any given year. Or do they entertain a trade?

My preference is probably Turner. I am a big fan of durable boxscore fillers who can do a bit of everything. Defensively, he's not the best option here and, yes, you'll probably need to address shortstop 3-to-4 years down the line. But he more-than-makes-up for his defensive shortcomings with his offensive profile. Unfortunately, for all these reasons, Turner will probably be the most expensive option.

But any of the four free agents will work. They all bring a good deal of value. Something will have to be done here. I will add this - the fact Swanson is about to become a free agent does tell me that he's not the Braves' top target. Who is? And who will the Braves get? Time will only tell.

The Rotation
The Bullpen
Catchers & Corner Infielders
Middle Infielders
Outfield & DH

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