Personally, I like Carlos Correa for what the Braves need. Mercenary type looking to get paid, but also looking possibly to be the final piece of a World Series team and to put up some gigantic numbers for another personal pay day. As for what it's going to take, I think of the 4 shortstops out there, Correa is the only one that might be amenable to being that mercenary for money. Let me clarify. All 4 obviously want to be paid significantly, but I sort of feel like Xander and Trea will want as long a term as possible and might forgo some salary every year (some, not significant amounts) to guarantee another year on a deal. They'll do so because they're entering their age 30 season. Dansby, despite being a year younger entering his age 29 season, I also feel will want longterm security over a quick pay day to re-enter the market again in a season or two. Simply put, for the reasons discussed before. He put up his "big" year heading into free agency and I think he knows that's about the best he'll ever do and he's going to want to parlay that into longterm security. He, too, will be about looking for the longest deal possible. That leaves Correa....the guy I labeled as a mercenary for hire. What makes me think he'll be open to it? Well....because he just did exactly that. He signed a gigantic 3-year deal with the Twins....and then opted out of it despite not posting the greatest counting stats numbers in 2022. He's entering his age 28 season and is now will be a victim of two straight winters of competition against other flashy shortstop names in free agency. Last year he competed with Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Javier Baez. Hindsight probably paints the picture that Correa should've been the choice for anyone looking for a big time shortstop, but it is what it is. So...if he had to compete with those names and got shafted because of it, why wouldn't he just stick in Minnesota for another year, get paid big money and THEN opt out when next year's shortstop class is inevitably thinner? Well, because just look at the Twins' lineup. Sure, they have Byron Buxton who is a big time power threat and has played 153 games.....over the past two seasons. They also have batting champ Luis Arraez....but could you consider him a difference-maker? I don't mean to be mean....but I can't help being mean about it. The Twins simply do not have the type of lineup where Correa is setup to post big time types of numbers--the type of fantasy baseball kind of numbers that Trea Turner has and will get paid for.
Anyway....in Atlanta, I feel Correa has that opportunity. Not that I feel a short-term focus is the greatest fix for the shortstop position, but the Braves have the cash flow to bring him in (also without fear of having to give up draft compensation due to a QO as he's ineligible having been tagged before) and can provide him the opportunity to pile up stats for another go around in free agency a year or two from now. Next year's free agent class looks like Tim Anderson and Brandon Crawford. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Javier Baez (if he opts out of of basically $24.5M/year through '27. lol) and Paul DeJong. The free agent class after that one: Willy Adames, Jorge Polanco, Ha-Seong Kim and any of the other FAs from the prior year that sign 1-year deals or opt-outs. Oh...and Kevin Newman. Channeling my inner Jerry Seinfeld (Balls up a fist and clenches teeth). Newman. I know player options and opt-outs aren't exactly the "Braves way", but I propose giving Correa a rather gigantic short term pay day disguised as a longterm contract. Something paying him $35M+ upfront, but with salaries tapering off towards the back end basically encouraging an opt-out. It's the ultimate bet/gamble on himself situation for Correa. He stays healthy, he'll post gigantic numbers in the middle of the Braves loaded lineup. He gets to opt out and relay those giant years into a true longterm deal with $35M+/year. If he doesn't stay healthy....he can still opt out and try to secure more money on another mercenary deal elsewhere....or he can opt-in and he'll be Atlanta's property for the next 4-5 years for a lower rate of pay. Just for shizzles and giggles, say, 7-years, $225M with an opt out after '24. Salaries of $40M in '23 & '24, $33M in '25 and now I'm lazy, so I'll say $28M/year from '26-'29. A little benefit to both sides as Correa gets to opt out in shallower free agent classes or the Braves get him for under $29M/year if he decides to opt-in. $40M is an absolutely massive number for the payroll in '23 and '24, but what use is having your core locked into team-friendly deals if you don't splurge a little on short-term deals to capitalize on the fact that you've got your stars locked in for the next 6-8 years?
I can say that I would be more than fine with Correa. Love him as a player and the Braves already have a previous rooted interest in him from last offseason. I love Turner, but Correa is a great fit.
I'm quite intrigued with just how much money the Braves will have this offseason. From previous payrolls, it wouldn't seem like much, but all the talk points to the Braves being players this offseason. How much will they be? Remains to be seen, of course. But definitely excited to find out.
I love Turner too, but probably more so because I got you to trade him to me a few years back in Keeper IV. That's still paying dividends, btw. Thanks. Realistically, though, I feel like Trea Turner's going to be that gem amongst the shortstops this winter. He does a little bit of everything and I do feel like there's a lot more to his game than just the elite speed, so I do feel a 7-year contract on him would be fine for any team to give him (assuming they have that contingency plan to move him off short in time as you noted). That said, it's not so much the term, but the combination of said term plus the dollars I'd have concern about. Where I alluded to Correa being a hired mercenary and encouraging the opt out after a couple of years, I don't think Turner would opt for such a set up--especially when he can probably get both the term and dollars he'll be looking for.
The other thing about Correa is that he's coming off a year where he didn't put up those countable stats. He had a fine and maybe even very good season....but he just wasn't presented with chances to put up gaudy numbers. That obviously isn't his fault and he shouldn't be judged for it....but you know that he is going to be judged for it on some level. That coupled with the mercenary type deal he is opting out of makes me think he'd be willing to enter another such pact with the promise that he'll be in the center of a loaded lineup that will rival any other lineup in the majors as far as runs production goes.
As far as the payroll situation, all that talk included a statement about the desire and plan for the Braves to be a top 5 payroll in the major leagues. That's big. They were 9th to start the 2022 season and while they're already in the top 5 at this moment with so many guarantees on the roster, they'll probably going to need to surpass the $200M threshold to maintain that as the Dodgers, White Sox, Yankees and maybe even the Phillies coming off a disappointing short-coming at the World Series are likely to be active players in the free agent market.
That said, the number everyone needs to be concerned about is the Collective Bargaining Tax threshold. The Braves are within $20M of that figure as is (also why I feel it's really important to not just get Ozuna off the roster, but to do what's necessary to move as much of that salary as possible). While I could be very wrong, the Braves seem like they wouldn't want to pay luxury tax on overages. That said, I personally wouldn't give a rat's furry behind about it. 20% on overages? Meh. 30% for a second offense? Meh again. Even 50% on overages....worthwhile price if we're winning championships. The only number we don't want to exceed is going over the threshold by $40M+ where you'll have your draft picks pushed back 10 slots. However, I still don't think moving back 10 slots in a draft is that big of a punishment for signing the final piece to your offense to make it truly elite and that's where I come from when I say let's go over the top on Correa and make it happen on a 2-3 year deal.
Sticking with Dansby as a player....while I love the passion, the defense is nice and he does go on unbeatable hot streaks, I feel like Dansby personifies a little bit of why the Braves lineup tends to go ice cold for long stretches. The blame isn't entirely Dansby's fault, but he is part of it as the entire team is basically built in the same image of his offensive profile. Decent walk rates, above average strike out rates and a lot of power. Off the top of my head, maybe the only person who doesn't really adhere to this mold is Travis d'Arnaud? I mean, I'm not saying the current build of the roster can't be and isn't successful, but now is a good time to add a piece that doesn't fit that mold offensively. The lineup could certianly benefit from plugging in a guy who makes a little more contact....not just for contact's sake, but someone that makes contact with authority.
Of the 4 big free agent shortstops (Dansby, Correa, Trea and Xander) Dansby is the only one with K% north of 21% for their career (he's at 24.2%). While that's not entirely terrible, you have Trea Turner (18%) and Xander Bogaerts (18.3%) who are rather elite and have made careers out of not striking out while making consistently loud contact. Then you have Correa (20.5%) who also makes Dansby look more like Joey Gallo or Chris Davis in comparison. Where I'm going with this point is that the Braves offense is in a rather unique position in that they are kind of just looking for that "cherry on top" in a sense. They have their table setter in Acuna Jr. They have the beef in Olson and Riley. They have their pesky in-between guys like Ozzie Albies and Travis d'Arnoud and they have possibly the best 9th place hitter in the league in Michael Harris II (assuming we utilize Contreras as DH most nights and find a suitable guy to DH alongside him in a part-time role). While they definitely NEED someone, they don't particular need a specific role filled other than the fact that they need whoever it is they sign to be able to play shortstop and I feel like that's a great opportunity to go a little crazy and bring in that piece to the offense that will take it from being great to truly elite.
All that said, I like Trea Turner. He's sexy. Statistically-speaking. Maybe a little bit because of those smooth pop-up slides too. Love the way he handles his wood and whacks those balls around, you know? What? Why are you looking at me like that? Would it help if I said 'No homo'? Did I just get canceled? Damn. Anyway....as much as I do like Trea Turner, I'm not sure he'd be my preference here--especially because he's that type of valuable that's both real life baseball and fantasy baseball valuable that everyone's going to jump up out of their undies trying to sign. It won't just be the contenders, but the near-contenders too. I can imagine even teams with incumbents at shortstop like the Giants, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies getting involved. Turner's the type of guy you try to make room for and is going to end up getting paid like it. Anyone who is locked in on Trea Turner needs to be prepared to go a fully guaranteed 7 years at $32M+/year salaries.
How dare the website tell me to type a shorter comment. I shall do no such thing! lol See? This is what happens when we don't talk about this kind of stuff for prolonged periods of time. You get this in gigantic blurb replies. Do not TLDR me, you bass turd. =P
I agree on that final statement regarding Swanson not being the #1 target. Also, feel this is supported with recent news coming out that Dansby has already turned down a $100Mish contract from the Braves. I don't believe it was mentioned the length of said $100M offer, but you have to imagine it was a 5-year deal. Anything longer for that amount probably would have just been an insult to Dansby and I can't imagine his camp being amenable to continue talking if the Braves weren't viewing him as a $20M+/year shortstop. However, considering they did what was necessary to sign Olson, Riley, Strider, Harris, etc. The fact that they haven't already signed Dansby speaks volumes.
That said, I'm not hurt he's not already signed and won't be hurt if the Braves don't opt to sign Swanson. In fact, even in the midst of and after his big-ish season I'm anxious for the Braves to move on from him because I 1) his "big" season wasn't entirely that big, 2) I don't believe his big season is some kind of revelation that's sign of big things to come and 3) because I feel defense is severely overrated and overvalued currently with the introduction of advanced stats. (this is an entirely different long-winded discussion for another day/thread)
Not sure where I'd start with my thoughts, so I guess we'll start with Dansby himself and the supposed career year he just had. I dunno about anyone else, but I'm just not impressed with his output this season as a whole. He was certainly on pace to have a career year....but that 2nd half drop off happened. In fact....we can probably clearly surmise that Dansby is more his 2nd half than his 1st half of 2022. Dansby's career BABIP is .313. His 1st half BABIP was .374 (132 wRC+ on fangraphs) and his 2nd half was .314 (94 wRC+ on FG). I'd challenge anyone to argue that Dansby is suddenly going to be the guy he was in the first half of 2022 going forward. If your argument starts with "He made a mechanical adjustment...." or "I have a hunch....", then your argument is automatically disqualified because if he made mechanical adjustments then they utterly failed him in the second half and if you have a hunch, I am pretty sure you also had a hunch the Braves were going to win the world series this year....as well as the year before....as well as the year before that and the year before that and the year before that, and so on. Then, if your argument is "He played too often and needed days off", you might have an argument....but then you need to talk about firing Brian Snitker, because the fact that Dansby never took a day off is more about Snitker's management style than it is Swanson's personality/desire to be in there everyday.
3 of 3 Sorry. Not sorry.
Personally, I like Carlos Correa for what the Braves need. Mercenary type looking to get paid, but also looking possibly to be the final piece of a World Series team and to put up some gigantic numbers for another personal pay day. As for what it's going to take, I think of the 4 shortstops out there, Correa is the only one that might be amenable to being that mercenary for money. Let me clarify. All 4 obviously want to be paid significantly, but I sort of feel like Xander and Trea will want as long a term as possible and might forgo some salary every year (some, not significant amounts) to guarantee another year on a deal. They'll do so because they're entering their age 30 season. Dansby, despite being a year younger entering his age 29 season, I also feel will want longterm security over a quick pay day to re-enter the market again in a season or two. Simply put, for the reasons discussed before. He put up his "big" year heading into free agency and I think he knows that's about the best he'll ever do and he's going to want to parlay that into longterm security. He, too, will be about looking for the longest deal possible. That leaves Correa....the guy I labeled as a mercenary for hire. What makes me think he'll be open to it? Well....because he just did exactly that. He signed a gigantic 3-year deal with the Twins....and then opted out of it despite not posting the greatest counting stats numbers in 2022. He's entering his age 28 season and is now will be a victim of two straight winters of competition against other flashy shortstop names in free agency. Last year he competed with Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Javier Baez. Hindsight probably paints the picture that Correa should've been the choice for anyone looking for a big time shortstop, but it is what it is. So...if he had to compete with those names and got shafted because of it, why wouldn't he just stick in Minnesota for another year, get paid big money and THEN opt out when next year's shortstop class is inevitably thinner? Well, because just look at the Twins' lineup. Sure, they have Byron Buxton who is a big time power threat and has played 153 games.....over the past two seasons. They also have batting champ Luis Arraez....but could you consider him a difference-maker? I don't mean to be mean....but I can't help being mean about it. The Twins simply do not have the type of lineup where Correa is setup to post big time types of numbers--the type of fantasy baseball kind of numbers that Trea Turner has and will get paid for.
Anyway....in Atlanta, I feel Correa has that opportunity. Not that I feel a short-term focus is the greatest fix for the shortstop position, but the Braves have the cash flow to bring him in (also without fear of having to give up draft compensation due to a QO as he's ineligible having been tagged before) and can provide him the opportunity to pile up stats for another go around in free agency a year or two from now. Next year's free agent class looks like Tim Anderson and Brandon Crawford. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Javier Baez (if he opts out of of basically $24.5M/year through '27. lol) and Paul DeJong. The free agent class after that one: Willy Adames, Jorge Polanco, Ha-Seong Kim and any of the other FAs from the prior year that sign 1-year deals or opt-outs. Oh...and Kevin Newman. Channeling my inner Jerry Seinfeld (Balls up a fist and clenches teeth). Newman. I know player options and opt-outs aren't exactly the "Braves way", but I propose giving Correa a rather gigantic short term pay day disguised as a longterm contract. Something paying him $35M+ upfront, but with salaries tapering off towards the back end basically encouraging an opt-out. It's the ultimate bet/gamble on himself situation for Correa. He stays healthy, he'll post gigantic numbers in the middle of the Braves loaded lineup. He gets to opt out and relay those giant years into a true longterm deal with $35M+/year. If he doesn't stay healthy....he can still opt out and try to secure more money on another mercenary deal elsewhere....or he can opt-in and he'll be Atlanta's property for the next 4-5 years for a lower rate of pay. Just for shizzles and giggles, say, 7-years, $225M with an opt out after '24. Salaries of $40M in '23 & '24, $33M in '25 and now I'm lazy, so I'll say $28M/year from '26-'29. A little benefit to both sides as Correa gets to opt out in shallower free agent classes or the Braves get him for under $29M/year if he decides to opt-in. $40M is an absolutely massive number for the payroll in '23 and '24, but what use is having your core locked into team-friendly deals if you don't splurge a little on short-term deals to capitalize on the fact that you've got your stars locked in for the next 6-8 years?
I can say that I would be more than fine with Correa. Love him as a player and the Braves already have a previous rooted interest in him from last offseason. I love Turner, but Correa is a great fit.
I'm quite intrigued with just how much money the Braves will have this offseason. From previous payrolls, it wouldn't seem like much, but all the talk points to the Braves being players this offseason. How much will they be? Remains to be seen, of course. But definitely excited to find out.
I love Turner too, but probably more so because I got you to trade him to me a few years back in Keeper IV. That's still paying dividends, btw. Thanks. Realistically, though, I feel like Trea Turner's going to be that gem amongst the shortstops this winter. He does a little bit of everything and I do feel like there's a lot more to his game than just the elite speed, so I do feel a 7-year contract on him would be fine for any team to give him (assuming they have that contingency plan to move him off short in time as you noted). That said, it's not so much the term, but the combination of said term plus the dollars I'd have concern about. Where I alluded to Correa being a hired mercenary and encouraging the opt out after a couple of years, I don't think Turner would opt for such a set up--especially when he can probably get both the term and dollars he'll be looking for.
The other thing about Correa is that he's coming off a year where he didn't put up those countable stats. He had a fine and maybe even very good season....but he just wasn't presented with chances to put up gaudy numbers. That obviously isn't his fault and he shouldn't be judged for it....but you know that he is going to be judged for it on some level. That coupled with the mercenary type deal he is opting out of makes me think he'd be willing to enter another such pact with the promise that he'll be in the center of a loaded lineup that will rival any other lineup in the majors as far as runs production goes.
As far as the payroll situation, all that talk included a statement about the desire and plan for the Braves to be a top 5 payroll in the major leagues. That's big. They were 9th to start the 2022 season and while they're already in the top 5 at this moment with so many guarantees on the roster, they'll probably going to need to surpass the $200M threshold to maintain that as the Dodgers, White Sox, Yankees and maybe even the Phillies coming off a disappointing short-coming at the World Series are likely to be active players in the free agent market.
That said, the number everyone needs to be concerned about is the Collective Bargaining Tax threshold. The Braves are within $20M of that figure as is (also why I feel it's really important to not just get Ozuna off the roster, but to do what's necessary to move as much of that salary as possible). While I could be very wrong, the Braves seem like they wouldn't want to pay luxury tax on overages. That said, I personally wouldn't give a rat's furry behind about it. 20% on overages? Meh. 30% for a second offense? Meh again. Even 50% on overages....worthwhile price if we're winning championships. The only number we don't want to exceed is going over the threshold by $40M+ where you'll have your draft picks pushed back 10 slots. However, I still don't think moving back 10 slots in a draft is that big of a punishment for signing the final piece to your offense to make it truly elite and that's where I come from when I say let's go over the top on Correa and make it happen on a 2-3 year deal.
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Sticking with Dansby as a player....while I love the passion, the defense is nice and he does go on unbeatable hot streaks, I feel like Dansby personifies a little bit of why the Braves lineup tends to go ice cold for long stretches. The blame isn't entirely Dansby's fault, but he is part of it as the entire team is basically built in the same image of his offensive profile. Decent walk rates, above average strike out rates and a lot of power. Off the top of my head, maybe the only person who doesn't really adhere to this mold is Travis d'Arnaud? I mean, I'm not saying the current build of the roster can't be and isn't successful, but now is a good time to add a piece that doesn't fit that mold offensively. The lineup could certianly benefit from plugging in a guy who makes a little more contact....not just for contact's sake, but someone that makes contact with authority.
Of the 4 big free agent shortstops (Dansby, Correa, Trea and Xander) Dansby is the only one with K% north of 21% for their career (he's at 24.2%). While that's not entirely terrible, you have Trea Turner (18%) and Xander Bogaerts (18.3%) who are rather elite and have made careers out of not striking out while making consistently loud contact. Then you have Correa (20.5%) who also makes Dansby look more like Joey Gallo or Chris Davis in comparison. Where I'm going with this point is that the Braves offense is in a rather unique position in that they are kind of just looking for that "cherry on top" in a sense. They have their table setter in Acuna Jr. They have the beef in Olson and Riley. They have their pesky in-between guys like Ozzie Albies and Travis d'Arnoud and they have possibly the best 9th place hitter in the league in Michael Harris II (assuming we utilize Contreras as DH most nights and find a suitable guy to DH alongside him in a part-time role). While they definitely NEED someone, they don't particular need a specific role filled other than the fact that they need whoever it is they sign to be able to play shortstop and I feel like that's a great opportunity to go a little crazy and bring in that piece to the offense that will take it from being great to truly elite.
All that said, I like Trea Turner. He's sexy. Statistically-speaking. Maybe a little bit because of those smooth pop-up slides too. Love the way he handles his wood and whacks those balls around, you know? What? Why are you looking at me like that? Would it help if I said 'No homo'? Did I just get canceled? Damn. Anyway....as much as I do like Trea Turner, I'm not sure he'd be my preference here--especially because he's that type of valuable that's both real life baseball and fantasy baseball valuable that everyone's going to jump up out of their undies trying to sign. It won't just be the contenders, but the near-contenders too. I can imagine even teams with incumbents at shortstop like the Giants, Mariners, Cubs, Phillies getting involved. Turner's the type of guy you try to make room for and is going to end up getting paid like it. Anyone who is locked in on Trea Turner needs to be prepared to go a fully guaranteed 7 years at $32M+/year salaries.
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How dare the website tell me to type a shorter comment. I shall do no such thing! lol See? This is what happens when we don't talk about this kind of stuff for prolonged periods of time. You get this in gigantic blurb replies. Do not TLDR me, you bass turd. =P
I agree on that final statement regarding Swanson not being the #1 target. Also, feel this is supported with recent news coming out that Dansby has already turned down a $100Mish contract from the Braves. I don't believe it was mentioned the length of said $100M offer, but you have to imagine it was a 5-year deal. Anything longer for that amount probably would have just been an insult to Dansby and I can't imagine his camp being amenable to continue talking if the Braves weren't viewing him as a $20M+/year shortstop. However, considering they did what was necessary to sign Olson, Riley, Strider, Harris, etc. The fact that they haven't already signed Dansby speaks volumes.
That said, I'm not hurt he's not already signed and won't be hurt if the Braves don't opt to sign Swanson. In fact, even in the midst of and after his big-ish season I'm anxious for the Braves to move on from him because I 1) his "big" season wasn't entirely that big, 2) I don't believe his big season is some kind of revelation that's sign of big things to come and 3) because I feel defense is severely overrated and overvalued currently with the introduction of advanced stats. (this is an entirely different long-winded discussion for another day/thread)
Not sure where I'd start with my thoughts, so I guess we'll start with Dansby himself and the supposed career year he just had. I dunno about anyone else, but I'm just not impressed with his output this season as a whole. He was certainly on pace to have a career year....but that 2nd half drop off happened. In fact....we can probably clearly surmise that Dansby is more his 2nd half than his 1st half of 2022. Dansby's career BABIP is .313. His 1st half BABIP was .374 (132 wRC+ on fangraphs) and his 2nd half was .314 (94 wRC+ on FG). I'd challenge anyone to argue that Dansby is suddenly going to be the guy he was in the first half of 2022 going forward. If your argument starts with "He made a mechanical adjustment...." or "I have a hunch....", then your argument is automatically disqualified because if he made mechanical adjustments then they utterly failed him in the second half and if you have a hunch, I am pretty sure you also had a hunch the Braves were going to win the world series this year....as well as the year before....as well as the year before that and the year before that and the year before that, and so on. Then, if your argument is "He played too often and needed days off", you might have an argument....but then you need to talk about firing Brian Snitker, because the fact that Dansby never took a day off is more about Snitker's management style than it is Swanson's personality/desire to be in there everyday.