2024 Preview: Bryce Elder

From All-Star to Gwinnett Opening Day Roster? It's looking like a real possibility for the former Longhorn.

2024 Preview: Bryce Elder

RHP, Age-25 Season
$800,000 estimated salary
Arbitration-eligible after 2025

Other Previews: Pitchers - Ian Anderson | Ben Bowden | Aaron Bummer | Dylan Dodd | Tommy Doyle
Outfielders - Ronald Acuña Jr.

Well, 2023 was certainly an eventful season for the 6'2" righty out of the University of Texas. Demoted a few weeks before the season even began in favor of rookies like Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster, Elder was back in the rotation soon due to injuries. He immediately took off, throwing six innings or better without allowing an earned run in four of his first six starts. He took a sub-2.00 ERA into June and a sub-3.00 ERA into the All-Star Break where he joined the game's best in Seattle.

Things started to unravel soon after. Four times over his final 13 starts, he allowed at least five earned runs. Three more times, he gave up four. And that doesn't include the seven-run stinker in his final start before the All-Star Break. A brilliant start to the season was undone by a 5.11 ERA in the baker's dozen of starts he made to finish the year. His strikeout rate plummeted while his walk rate skyrocketed.

The Braves rolled a dice in the NLDS and gave Elder a chance. He was charged with a half-dozen runs and didn't make it out of the third.

So, what happened?

Well, we can certainly talk about the length of the season. Elder went from 137.2 innings in 2021 to 159 innings the following year to 183.1 total innings in 2023. That can cause some serious fatigue for a guy.

But the biggest thing at play was simple regression. Throughout the first half, Elder out-pitched his advanced metrics, posting great run-prevention numbers despite a mediocre page on Baseball Savant. His tenacity and good luck were the main contributing factors. That said, he threw quality strikes with his sinker/slider, working himself into good counts, and getting his fair share of grounders off the bat that his above-average infield defense gobbled up.

Seemingly once July hit, he struggled to maintain that success. His sinker, which carried a ground ball rate of over 60% coming into July, slipped to under 50% the rest of the way. His slider, which was getting topped by a +60% rate over the first two months, was around 35% the final two months.

To be fair, beneath the numbers, this was predicted by the expected outcome stats. In April, his xBA was .273 next to a .241 result. There was a similar -33 point difference between xBA and actual BA in May. After looking at his most dominant in June, his xBA for July and August weren't that dissimilar from April and May. The results, especially in July, were very different, though.

Where Elder goes from here is interesting. Below-average velocity combined with an average-or-below-average mark in Zone%, Edge%, Chase%, and Whiff% isn't the greatest mix. Elder is helped because his barrel rate has been low and he typically does a decent job keeping the ball in the yard. He also generates a good amount of vertical movement to compensate for weak horizontal movement.

There is a thin line for Elder to live on. He balanced that tightrope well in the first half and was wobbling badly in the second half. As a fifth starter, he's, well, fine. But there's a reason why he's battling for that fifth spot despite being an All-Star last season. The Braves just aren't in a position where they can rely on him. His first two spring starts have not been confidence builders, either. The Red Sox plated two on four hits and a walk against Elder with Bryce failing to get through the second in his first start. He completed three innings his next start but gave up four hits, three runs, and hit a better. He did strike out three.

Will Elder get a second consecutive spring training demotion or will he hold onto the fifth spot? I'd say the chances of the former are a little bit better than the latter right now. When the Braves signed Reynaldo Lopez, there was a healthy debate whether it was for the rotation or the bullpen. Lopez could still end up in the bullpen, but maybe not because of Elder, but because of AJ Smith-Shawver, who has done nothing but impress so far this spring. Hurston Waldrep is also working his way into the mix, though he's likely another few months away from being deemed ready to get a shot. If Elder did receive some good news, it was that Dylan Dodd, Darius Vines, and Allan Winans were optioned yesterday and removed from the battle for the fifth spot in the rotation.

Whatever the case, Elder is going to get a few starts this year for the big league club. The team has every reason to monitor the innings their Big Four get and using a guy like Elder here and there to add a day or two of rest to the group makes sense. Injuries, too, could open time for Elder if he's forced to Gwinnett.

It's easy to get down on Elder. He's not your normal All-Star. But he can be useful for his bulldog nature on the mound and ability to provide innings. That's true regardless if you'd rather see a higher-ceiling option.

Walk-Off Walk 2024 fWAR prediction

0.4 fWAR

Other Previews: Pitchers - Ian Anderson | Ben Bowden | Aaron Bummer | Dylan Dodd | Tommy Doyle
Outfielders - Ronald Acuña Jr.